What was six is now two as the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens successfully defended their respective turfs over the weekend to secure a spot in the 2012 AFC Championship Game. Early betting odds for the conference championship showdown have the hosting Patriots, the AFC’s No. 1 seed, listed as a heavy -7.5 against the spread home favorite. New England is a -330 moneyline play while the Ravens can be nabbed at +270 odds to beat the Patriots outright.
A quick glance at Tom Brady’s career numbers against Baltimore and one might be inclined to toss some green on the Ravens this weekend. The three time Super Bowl winner has thrown for 1,133 yards, six touchdowns, and six interceptions while completing a lackluster 56 percent of his passes in five career meetings with Baltimore. The resulting 72.1 quarterback rating would lead one to believe an imposter started those game rather than man we now know as ‘Tom Terrific’.
Despite those poor numbers, Brady has succeeded against the Ravens where it counts most, in the win column. The Patriots are 4-1 opposite Baltimore with Brady at the helm, their only loss coming in a surprising 33-14 Wild Card setback at Gillette Stadium in January of 2010. Brady was particularly bad that afternoon, accounting for three of New England’s four turnovers, a development which resulted in the Pats offense producing all of 15 first downs and 196 total yards.
To expect a similar performance this Sunday would be foolhardy. Although the Michigan product referred to this weekend’s game as New England’s “biggest challenge of the season”, hardly anyone is willing to step up and pick the Ravens mostly because it is difficult to find anyone expecting Tom to be anything less than Brady.
Adding further doubt to Baltimore’s chances is the Patriots recent record as a home favorite with a 4 to 7.5 point spread. New England, which is 4-1 in conference championship games under Bill Belichick, is 9-1 straight up and 7-3 against the spread in its last 10 games in such a role.
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2012 AFC Championship Game Betting Odds: Provided by TopBet.com
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 (-110), Over 50.5 (-110), +270 (Moneyline)
New England Patriots -7.5 (-110), Under 50.5 (-110), -330 (Moneyline)
