There are odds aplenty on this weekend's big game, but making the right play is key to adding a little extra enjoyment to the festivities. With that in mind, feel free to make use of the following 2011 Super Bowl Picks, before its too late.
Super Bowl XLV – Most Rushing Yards
Rashard Mendenhall -120
James Starks -110
Mendenhall is a steal at these odds. Green Bay has fed the ball to Starks a lot in the playoffs (averaging 23.3 carries per game in the postseason), but Mendenhall is the safer play. The Illinois product has 47 carries for 167 yards in the playoffs (two games) compared to Starks 263 yards (three games), leaving him slightly behind the rookie in both yards per carry and yards per game; however, those numbers do not take the Steelers defense into account. Pittsburgh ranked first in the league in rush defense and it has allowed a total of 105 rush yards in its two playoff games. The Packers ranked 18th in rush yards per game allowed (114) and are giving up an average 69.7 yards per game on the ground in the playoffs.
While the Packers postseason numbers are impressive, they are not the equal of the Steelers when it comes to stuffing the run. Pittsburgh will smother Starks in this one; he'll be lucky to crest the 50 yard mark. Mendenhall may not be in for a career day, but he should outperform Starks, barring a huge early deficit for Pittsburgh.
Super Bowl XLV – Completion Percentage – Ben Roethlisberger
Over 60 % +100
Under 60 % -130
Roethlisberger completed over 60 percent of passes in nine of his 12 regular season starts, but he has yet to do so in the postseason. Big Ben connected on 19-of-32 passes (59.4) in the Divisional win over Baltimore and he completed 10-of-19 passes in the AFC Championship Game.
Green Bay's defense held its opposition to a 56.2 completion percentage in the regular. That average has gone up in the playoffs, but not much, with Chicago completing 50 percent, Atlanta 68.9 percent, and Philadelphia 55.5 (58.1). The Under should be given heavy consideration here. Pittsburgh's offensive line is banged up, which means Roethlisberger could be attempting a lot of passes on the run.
Super Bowl XLV – Total TD Passes – Aaron Rodgers
Over Two TD Passes +105
Under Two TD Passes -135
Rodgers has completed three or more touchdown passes in five of the Packers last nine games. He threw three scoring strikes in each of the Packers first two playoff wins before posting a donut in the NFC Championship Game against Chicago. Rodgers failed to throw a touchdown pass in just two regular season games, but he responded big after each occurance, throwing three against Dallas (after the Jets) and four against the Giants (after the Lions).
Expecting that against the Steelers may be a little much, though. Pittsburgh gave up 15 passing touchdowns in the regular season and it has allowed a total of three in the playoffs thus far. The lean goes to the Under.
