While grading the games this weekend, the NFL handicapping staff on hand has had its hands full. But the hardest game on the board to grade is the tilt between the Indianapolis Colts and the visiting Houston Texans. The NFL oddsmakers have given out a -9.0 NFL point spread to the Colts, who will be trying to defend an undefeated 7-0 SU record.
The Texans (5-3) are coming off three straight wins and have some nifty betting trends backing up their favor. They’re 6-2 ATS away from home and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Colts. Indianapolis is just 4-9 ATS in their 13 home stands. Eleven of those game have been at Lucas Oil Stadium.
If I had to toss out an early NFL free pick in this game, it would be to the Texans. They have a high-powered passing game that is led by Matt Schaub, who leads the NFL with 2,342 total passing yards this season. The Texans, however, have some serious questions in the backfield. Sure, Moats can tear up the Buffalo Bills, but Indy is 9th in home rushing defense with just 92.0 yards allowed on the ground.
Coach Kubiak stated that his backs, "know they're all going to play and they know they're all going to be a part of what we're doing, so I just think we keep working them,” (http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/story/12473323/fumble-prone-slaton-may-lose-starting-job-to-moats) meaning that Moats and Slaton are essentially going to split carries. While Moats is used to being a backup, Slaton will have to deal with the loss of his starting job and the pressure might lead to more fumbles if he can’t hold on to the ball. Undoubtedly, the Texans will need Slaton’s versatility with a Colts defense armed with Bob Sanders at safety.
The other issue facing the backfield is that Moats isn’t the stud he was against Buffalo in Week 8. He was waived by the Philadelphia Eagles before the 2008 season even began. During the 2008 season, Moats was a practice roster dummy for the Texans before an injury to Ahman Green promoted Moats to the actual starting roster. He’s been second fiddle to Slaton for the past one-and-a-half seasons (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ryan_Moats).
I thought that the problems the Colts were facing with the problematic and injury prone Joseph Addai were troubling, but the fumblitis of Slaton is alarming for Houston. Slaton has five lost fumbles this year, which is enough to scare Texans bettors across the Lone Star State. But even more worrisome is the idea that he’ll be splitting carries with a guy that’s been a practice roster mainstay for pretty much his entire career. All I can say in this game is to be wisely. The headlines will revolve around Slaton in the backfield, but the real attention getter will be Schaub-Johnson trying to match Manning-Wayne with fireballs through the air.
