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Louisville vs West Virginia 2011 College Football Picks Week 10

by John Day on Saturday, November 5th, 2011

Louisville vs West Virginia 2011 College Football Picks Week 10: The No. 24 West Virginia University Mountaineers (6-2, 2-1 Big East) haven't played at home in nearly a month since beating Connecticut on Oct. 8. Since that time the Mounties went to Syracuse as 14-chalk favorites and got whipped to the tune of 23-49, in every phase of the game; then survived at Rutgers last Saturday covering the 8-point spread as favorites and winning SU 41-31. Today (12:05 p.m. ET) West Virginia must deal with the Louisville Cardinals (4-4, 2-1 Big East), a young team that's starting to find itself and playing with a little confidence. The Cardinals are winners of two straight home games,

Oddsmakers at online sportsbook SBGglobal.com opened early Saturday betting listing West Virginia as 13-chalk College Football Odds f avorites with a combined score total (over/under) posted at 51 1/2. Bettors are getting the Mountaineers on the offshore moneyline priced at -500 while Cardinals' backers are getting +400 as ML underdogs.

Since going 2-4 SU over their first six games; the Cardinals have won their last two back to back SU, also beating Rutgers (16-14) on Oct 15, and whipped Syracuse in Week 9 27-10. The Cardinals have covered ATS in four straight and in five of their last eight. Since going 1-3 ATS in their first four games, the Cardinals have since covered ATS four straight.

West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith didn’t have his best passing performance last Saturday at Rutgers, going 20 for 31 for a season-low 218 yards and two touchdowns, but he made some big football plays when his team needed it most in helping his team to a critical 41-31 come-from-behind victory. Three times in the second half against Rutgers, Smith used his legs instead of his arm to make things happen, twice scrambling for first down yardage on third down, and then on fourth and goal at the Scarlet Knights’ 1,

Smith used his head by using his feet to get into the end zone when he didn’t like the look he got on the passing play Coach Dana Holgorsen called. For the Mountaineers to win today, Smith will need better numbers through the air because Louisville coach Charlie Strong will be looking to close off any running lanes that Smith can exploit. The Louisville defense will be the best the Mountaineers have seen this year. Smith had a terrible day when facing Louisville completing 9-of-20 for 133 yards.

Today's game will be closer than the betting line indicates. It will be difficult for Louisville to win in a hostile environment at Morgantown but having the ability to cover the spread getting +13 is another matter. My Pick – Louisville +13.

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