College Football Predictions Week 12: We are approaching Week-12-Saturday of the 2011 College Football Season and if you turn on ESPN or any other sports network covering college football, you'll get the "what if's", and "they should's." Of course I'm referring entirely to how the BCS will stack up at the end of the regular season. What if LSU loses to Arkansas Nov. 25; what happens then? What if Arkansas beats LSU, as a College Football Odds underdog and Alabama loses to Auburn – who will play in the BCS championship game? What if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State in Stillwater, and they should (not really). I always get a kick out of the phrase – "and they should." Like there's some higher order of how a scenario should fall. I think the opposite of should is chaos and chaos is usually what we get. What happens is we project ahead of what might happen, but have no clue of what will happen. One thing is guaranteed; what does happen will not resemble what one thinks should happen.
Need an exampled? Scroll to CFB Week-8 – Oklahoma is BCS No. 3 – has an easy "should win" home game with Texas Tech. Didn't happen did it? Tech wins 41-38, and hasn't sniffed a win since. Red Raiders follow with three straight losses to Iowa State, Texas and Oklahoma State by a combined score of 159-33. Tech's beating Oklahoma was chaos at its best. What that one upset did, was change the scope of what is to come in the 2011 BCS race. And it will change even more as the season plays out. Let's look at this week's big games and try to make a few predictions.
On Thursday (8 p.m. ET) No. 8 (BCS) Virginia Tech and North Carolina play a pivotal ACC Coastal Conference game at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg. At 2-4 in league play, the Tar Heels will not win the division but have a chance to determine who does. A loss to Carolina (6-4) would throw the Hokies, into a tie with Virginia, lurking a game back at 4-2. Where do the Hokies finish their season Nov. 26? At Virginia. I don't know if the Tar Heels win this game outright; but I expect them to cover the chalk as +10 1/2 underdogs.
No. 2 Oklahoma State (10-0, 7-0 Big 12) goes on the road for the second straight week, this time to play Iowa State (5-4, 2-4) at Ames (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Cowboys are expected to be big winners, lined -27 1/2 chalk favorites at all shops. This game provides ISU a perfect opportunity to have an impact on the BCS race. An OSU loss would practically wreck any championship dreams the Cowboys have. I don't think the Cyclones will allow the Cowboys to waltz into Ames and go unchallenged. At 5-4, Iowa State needs one more win to become bowl qualified and must get the win against three of the league's best; OSU, Oklahoma or Kansas State. The Cyclones will come out inspired this Friday and cover as +27 1/2 home dogs, but can they win SU and be forever remembered in college football lore?
After lopsided home wins over South Carolina and Tennessee the past two Saturday's, 6th ranked Arkansas will finalize its home schedule against SEC West foe Mississippi State at War Memorial Stadium in Little Rock (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS). This game presents the perfect trap situation for Arkansas, if caught looking ahead to next Friday's game at No. 1 LSU. The Razorbacks, lined -13 point favorites, have dominated the Bulldogs since joining the SEC and will not be caught looking ahead. Hogs win SU and cover -13.
Clemson has climbed back into the BCS Top-10, currently ranked No. 7 as it heads to Raleigh to play North Carolina State this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC). The Tigers have dominated the series in recent years winning seven straight, last losing in Raleigh in 2003. Clemson is lined 7 1/2-chalk road favorite in this one. These games between the Tigers and Wolfpack are usually close affairs, Clemson winning at home 14-13 in 2010. I don't see this game any different. State covers +7 1/2 at home.
No. 16 Nebraska (8-2, 4-2 Big Ten) makes its inaugural trip as member of the Big Ten Conference to play No. 18 Michigan at Noon ET (8-2, 4-2) in the Big House at Ann Arbor. Michigan is lined favorite by -3 1/2 at most off shore sports books. The Huskers are playing on the road for the second straight week against ranked competition, narrowly defeating Penn State by 3-points at Beaver Stadium, Nov. 12. The Wolverines return home after defeating Illinois 31-14 in Champaign. At 4-2 in league play, both Michigan and Nebraska need a win to stay viable in the Big Ten Legends Division race. Nebraska will not be intimidated by the hostile venue; look for the Huskers to cover +3 1/2.
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