The post draw for the Belmont Stakes 2015 concluded yesterday and American Pharoah will open the final leg of the Triple Crown series from Gate 5. While Post 1 has yielded the most Belmont winners with 23, the five-hole has produced the third most at 14.
American Pharoah’s post is mere window dressing, though; at least to the odds makers anyway. The colt would have been favored regardless and it is now getting 5 to 7 betting odds ($140 wins $100) to win the Belmont.
However, in spite of American Pharoah’s dazzling resume, which features five Grade 1 victories, some handicappers are not too keen on the colt’s chances of garnering the coveted Triple Crown.
The latest horse racing tips from those who embrace the Dosage Index, a formula created to determine how well a horse will tackle longer distances, suggest American Pharoah backers could be disappointed come Saturday. The Pioneerof The Nile sired colt’s DI number of 4.33 is the highest among the eight Belmont Stakes entries (like golf, the lower the score the better).
History is, of course, not on the colt’s side either as the last 13 colts to complete the Derby/Preakness double came up short in the Belmont, including such memorable runners as Smarty Jones and Big Brown.
American Pharoah will also be battling a mostly fresh field that features highly regarded Derby runners Frosted and Materiality. The two colts are drawing 6 to 1 and 13 to 2 odds as second and third Belmont Stakes picks to Ahmed Zayat’s colt and neither horse took a stab at the Preakness Stakes after finishing fourth and sixth, respectively, in the Run for the Roses.
Materiality, who posted a 110 Beyer Speed rating in winning the Florida Derby, was unbeaten in three starts prior to his effort in the Kentucky Derby. Frosted, meanwhile, finished first or second in six of his eight starts and he placed fourth in the other two.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is undeterred in his optimism, though, even if his tenor more subdued than Zayat’s lavish boastings.
“I really feel like it’s a different vibe this year with this horse,” said Baffert, who nearly won the Triple Crown with Real Quiet, War Emblem and I’ll Have Another (did not start in the Belmont). “I think his energy level is good. If the race was tomorrow, we’re ready to go.”
That is, indeed, saying something given the fact it will be American Pharoah’s third race inside of five weeks, but it really provides no indication as to how he will perform on Saturday.
All anyone knows at this point is this: If one were inclined to bet American Pharoah to win the Triple Crown, they would have plenty of solid reasons for doing so. The same can be said for those willing to take a stab at another colt, though. And they probably don’t need the Dosage Index to determine whether or not their play is a good one.
Belmont Stakes 2015 Post Draw & Betting Odds:
Post 1. Mubtaahij 14/1
Post 2. Tale of Verve 20/1
Post 3. Madefromlucky 14/1
Post 4. Frammento 40/1
Post 5. American Pharoah 5/7
Post 6. Frosted 6/1
Post 7. Keen Ice 25/1
Post 8. Materiality 13/2