Miami’s “Big Three” played two very solid games in San Antonio in Games 4 and 5 but only managed to go 1-1 SU in them. It has been the supporting cast that has either not been knocking down shots or not being able to cover their man and Miami’s trailing because of it. Playing at home is typically where the reserves on any team will play better because of the comfort level and I fully expect that to be the case with Miami tonight. Guys like Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers and Shane Battier really have to step up their game if they want to be holding the Larry O’Brien trophy on Thursday night.

That means getting back to that hounding defense Miami loves to play at home and one that held the Spurs to 88 pts/game in the first two games here. The Spurs offense managed to score 106.6/game in their three home games and giving up that many points is not how Miami has success. The Miami Heat allowed 95/game on average all season and has cut that number down to 90.4/game in the playoffs. That’s why they are playing in Game 6 of the NBA Finals and that’s how they’ll need to play if they want to play in a Game 7.

The last thing San Antonio wants to see is a Game 7 and they’ll be looking to end it here tonight. Although they’ve split the last two games and hold the lead in the series, having the James/Wade/Bosh combo score 75.5/game in that span is just playing with fire.

The trio was scoring only 43.5/game in the first two games in Miami and that’s closer to where the Spurs would like to Lebron James and company finish because the San Antonio Spurs knows Miami’s bench won’t beat them. The Spurs want to put the ball in the hands of Miami’s reserves and if they can do that and avoid LeBron or Wade going off they could find a way to end this tonight.

But taking the points with San Antonio is hard given Miami’s track record this post-season after a loss. They are 6-0 SU in this spot and have won by an average margin of 20.6 points. Seven-and-a-half points is a lot to lay in a Finals game but the Heat will come out hungry like they did in Games 2 and 4 and send this to a seventh and deciding game on Thursday.

Spurs vs Heat Pick Game 6: Lay the points with Miami

Thus far this series, like the Heat’s Eastern Conference Finals showdown with the Pacers, has been a predictable one. Quite simply, If Miami wins a game, they lose the next; if Miami loses a game, they win the next. Not only have the Heat won off a loss, they have covered the number every time in these playoffs. The odds makers are attempting to combat the Heat’s incredibly predictable nature by raising the number bit by bit after every Miami setback, but thus far, they have yet to raise it high enough. Could this be the right one?

San Antonio just took a 3-2 series lead, beating the Heat 114-104. The Spurs shot 60 percent from the field, 40.9 percent from beyond the arc, and all five of their starters scored in double figures. What’s more, shooting guard Danny Green appears to be a star in the making as he posted 24 points after another scintillating performance from long range (6-for-10). San Antonio also moved Manu Ginobili to the starting lineup with great success; the veteran guard scored 24 points and handed out 10 assists in by far his best showing of the Finals. Tim Duncan and Tony Parker were part of the act too, combining for 43 points, 12 rebounds, and five assists.

An even better sign for the Spurs was the fact that Dwyane Wade was an integral part of Miami’s offensive attack. Wade had been missing in action most of the series, but he showed up in a big way for Game 4, leading the Heat to a 109-93 victory. Wade remained a force for Miami in Game 5, scoring 25 points and dishing out 10 assists and, yet, the Spurs won.

Still, with Miami at home and its back against the wall, this is an easy call. The Heat will force a Game 7, creating, hopefully, one of the more exciting season finale’s the league has seen in quite some time.

Spurs Heat Odds Game 6 NBA Finals 2013: Provided by Bovada.lv

San Antonio Spurs +7 (-110), Over 191 (-110)

Miami Heat -7 (-110), Under 191 (-110)

San Antonio let a golden opportunity slip through its fingers on Thursday as it had a chance to take a commanding 3-1 series lead. However, to say it that way would be doing a disservice to the defending champion Heat.

Miami really did not leave the Spurs much a choice as it turned in tremendous performance, arguably its best of the series, in a must win situation. The Heat were outstanding in almost all facets both offensively and defensively, shooting 52.9 percent from the field while limiting San Antonio, which had 18 turnovers, to 44.3 percent shooting.

LeBron James led the way for Miami, scoring 33 points to go along with 11 rebounds, but Dwyane Wade was the biggest factor in the Heat’s dominating performance. Wade, who has been hampered by an knee injury throughout the playoffs, turned in, by far, his best effort of the postseason, scoring 32 points on 14-of-25 shooting. He also added six rebounds, four assists, and six steals in helping Miami knot the series at two all.

Now it is the Spurs turn to step up as they face their most critical point in the series thus far. While trends can be fickle, Miami’s run in the Eastern Conference Finals and now NBA Finals point toward San Antonio taking a 3-2 lead back to the Sunshine State.

The Heat are 6-5 in their last 11 games and they have alternated wins and losses since opening their series with the Pacers with a 103-102 overtime victory. Miami gets up after a loss, but it appears to be unable to carry that momentum into the next game. This not all about the Heat, though, as the Spurs, who are 7-2 at home in the playoffs, have not lost back to back games in the postseason.

NBA Finals Betting Trend: The Spurs are 15-1 playing at home off a loss this season (includes playoffs).

Heat Spurs Odds Game 5 NBA Finals 2013: Provided by Sportsbook.ag

Miami Heat -1.5 (-110), Over 188.5 (-110), -120 (Moneyline)

San Antonio Spurs +1.5 (-110), Under 188.5 (-110), +100 (Moneyline)

It appeared as though San Antonio had no problem gathering motivation for their own dismal showing in the 2nd half of Game 2 to return the favor to Miami in the 2nd half of Game 3. The Spurs outscored Miami 63-33 in the 2nd half to blow the game wide open and earn a 2-1 series lead.

Now the Miami Heat finds themselves in a big hole with the next two games still in San Antonio and if they want to ensure this series heads back to South Beach their stars better show up.

Dwyane Wade was the leading scorer for the Heat with only 16 points in Game 3 and LeBron Jame’s 7-for-21 night with zero free throws attempted summed up Miami’s dismal performance. But with this being the third straight Finals appearance for this bunch, they are no strangers to adversity in this round of the playoffs. James, Wade and Bosh know that they each have to elevate their game tonight if they want any hope of tying up the series and I expect all three to do so.

Blowouts in the playoffs can lead to many questions in the media about whether or not Team X is overmatched, etc. but we’ve already seen two blowouts in the three games of this series. What they do lead to from a player/coaching standpoint is detailed self-evaluation and adjustments. The San Antonio Spurs were able to make the necessary adjustments in defending the LeBron James pick-and-roll set that tormented them in Game 2 and now it’s Miami’s turn to figure out how to turn the tables back on the Spurs.

It begins with defending the three-point line better as San Antonio knocked down a NBA Finals record 16 shots from beyond the arc. The Heat have to send better help defense to the perimeter and being in the desperate spot that they are, Miami will get that done tonight. The Spurs likely won’t shoot 50% from distance again in Game 4 and Miami thrives when they are playing technically sound defense. That’s how they took over in Game 2 and I expect a similar effort in Game 4.

On Wednesday, LeBron stated to the media that he played like s**t in Game 3 and vows to be much better tonight. Given Miami’s track record after losses in these playoffs (5-0 SU); with an average margin of victory of 21.6 points in those wins, it’s impossible not to believe him. Yes, Miami is in a hostile environment against a Spurs team that has only lost seven of 49 games in this building this year, but the fact that the spread is actually a point lower (-1) than it was for Game 3 tells you all you need to know what to expect from the Heat in Game 4.

Heat vs Spurs Pick Game 4: Take Miami on the ML.

Miami continued its recent playoff run of alternating wins and losses last night as the Spurs crushed the defending champs 113-77 to take a 2-1 series lead. The setback, by far the Heat’s worst of the postseason, saw San Antonio knock down 16 of its 32 three-point attempts, procure a 16 rebound edge on the glass, and force 16 Miami turnovers.

While Tim Duncan and Tony Parker usually grab the spotlight for San Antonio, it was Danny Green and reserve Gary Neal that did so on Tuesday. On a night when Duncan and Parker combined for 18 points, Green and Parker tallied 51 points on 18-of-32 shooting (13-of-19 from beyond the arc).

The Heat seemed ill equipped to combat the Spurs offensive barrage as LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade combined for 43 points. Miami’s other two starters, Udonis Haslem and Game 2 hero Mario Chalmers, contributed zero points on 0-for-7 shooting.

Despite last night’s lopsided affair, the odds makers anticipate a tightly contested Game 4. The Heat have been spectacular off a loss this season, but especially in the playoffs, going 5-0 both straight up and against the spread. However, the manner in which Game 3 played out may have changed Miami’s psyche somewhat. If there every were an opportunity for the Heat’s incredible post-loss winning streak to come to end, tomorrow night is it.

NBA Finals Betting Trend: The Heat are 1-6 straight up and 1-5-1 against the spread in their last seven games as a road dog with a spread between 0 and 3.5 points and a total between 185 and 190 points.

Heat Spurs Odds Game 4 NBA Finals 2013: Provided by CarbonSports.ag

Miami Heat +1.5 (-110), Over 187.5 (-110), +100 (Moneyline)

San Antonio Spurs -1.5 (-110), Under 187.5 (-110), -120 (Moneyline)

The Spurs will need a new plan to deal with LeBron James pick-and-roll game though as Miami used that in the 2nd half of Game 2 to blow the game wide open. LeBron James puts teams in a very tough spot when he is setting the picks as his defender really has to choose between the lesser of two evils. Unless there is secondary help elsewhere, LeBron or his teammate will have a wide open lane to penetrate or create an easy look. The San Antonio Spurs had no answer for it in Game 2, but Popovich and company are too savvy not to have made some critical adjustments for Game 3. Losing by 19 stung, but like match play in golf, it’s still only one game.

Now that they are back at home the Spurs have to get back to their open court game and running the floor. They had the 4th best offense in terms of points-per-game in the regular season (103) and hold the same ranking in the playoffs, albeit with a lower total (99.9). There has been a misconception all year that because the San Antonio is an older team they don’t like to run and that just isn’t the case. Now trading baskets with the likes of James, Wade and Miami’s three-point shooters may be playing with fire but I don’t think the Spurs will mind. They are so comfortable in this building that getting into the 100’s should be their goal tonight.

Miami won’t mind running either as they have to be aggressive to steal home court back. They were in a similar position the past two rounds after losing Game 1 and winning Game 2 against Chicago and Indiana. In both instances the Miami Heat came out and attacked the bucket early and often in Game 3, scoring 52 and 70 points in those first halves respectively. Miami finished those contests with 104 and 114 points and won both of them to regain control of each series. It’s tough to imagine the Heat going with a different game plan this time around, especially after no one scored 20 points in the Game 2 victory.

So rather than touching the spread, I’m eyeing this total as I believe we see the first ‘over’ of these Finals. San Antonio is 5-2 O/U at home in the playoffs and sport the same O/U mark in their last seven following a loss.

Miami has shown the past two rounds that they aren’t afraid to rely on their offense when on the road and should do the same tonight. They’ve got the best player in the world and LeBron will likely need one of those 30+ point performances in one of these next three games to ensure this series heads back to South Beach.

Heat vs Spurs Point Spread Betting Picks Game 3: Take the Over 188

The Los Angeles Lakers, given Kobe Bryant’s injury and Dwight Howard’s free agent status, are a middle of the pack consideration for next season at +2500 odds. Two other big city, big name franchises, the New York Knicks and Boston Celtics, are not seen a viable contenders either. The Knicks are listed at +2000 odds to win the Finals next year while a Celtics win would return $4000 for every $100 wagered.

The two biggest longshots are, not surprisingly, the Orlando Magic and Charlotte Bobcats. Both squads, which combined to win 41 games last season, are drawing +50000 odds to win the 2014 NBA Finals.

2014 NBA Finals Odds: Provided by Sportsbook.ag

Miami Heat +250
Oklahoma City Thunder +450
San Antonio Spurs +800
Chicago Bulls +800
Indiana Pacers +1200
Los Angeles Clippers +1500
Memphis Grizzlies +2000
New York Knicks +2000
Houston Rockets +2000
Golden State Warriors +2500
Los Angeles Lakers +2500
Denver Nuggets +2500
Boston Celtics +4000
Dallas Mavericks +4000
Brooklyn Nets +4000
Atlanta Hawks +5000
Portland Trail Blazers +10000
Minnesota Timberwolves +10000
New Orleans Pelicans +10000
Sacramento Kings +10000
Cleveland Cavaliers +10000
Washington Wizards +10000
Toronto Raptors +10000
Philadelphia 76ers +10000
Milwaukee Bucks +10000
Utah Jazz +10000
Detroit Pistons +30000
Phoenix Suns +30000
Orlando Magic +50000
Charlotte Bobcats +50000

The Spurs stunned the Heat on Thursday night, opening the NBA Finals with a 92-88 win at the AmericanAirlines Arena, but Miami did as expected when the two clubs hooked up last night. Per usual, the Heat bounced back from a loss, clubbing the Spurs 103-84 to even the series at a game apiece.

San Antonio shot 50 percent from beyond the arc (10-of-20) in the loss and it won the battle of the boards 44 to 36; however, the Heat forced 16 Spurs turnovers and they decimated San Antonio’s defense.

Miami shot 49.4 percent for the game and it dropped 10 of its 19 attempts from beyond the arc. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade had off nights, combining for 27 points on 12 of 30 shooting, but a big effort from Mario Chalmers, who tallied a team high 19 points after going 6-for-12 from the field and 5-for-5 from the charity stripe.

The Spurs big three of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili were dreadful in the setback. The trio combined for just 27 points and they accounted for nine of the team’s 16 turnovers.

Despite yesterday’s result, the odds makers expect San Antonio to have its own bounce back outing tomorrow evening. The Spurs, who posted a 35-6 home record during the regular season, are 6-1 at the AT&T Center in the playoffs and winning by an average of 8.5 points per game. The Heat are 0-4 in their last four playoff games off a win, losing by an average of 7.3 points per game.

NBA Finals Betting Trend: The Spurs are 5-0 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games as a home favorite with a total between 185 and 190 (Under was 4-1 in those five games).

Heat Spurs Odds Game 3 NBA Finals 2013: Provided by Sportsbook.ag

Miami Heat +2.5 (-110), Over 187.5 (-110), +120 (Moneyline)

San Antonio Spurs -2.5 (-110), Under 187.5 (-110), -140 (Moneyline)

The Miami Heat opened the NBA Finals as a -5.5 against the spread home favorite, but that did not keep the Spurs from spoiling things at the AmericanAirlines Arena last night. San Antonio showed few signs of having not played in over a week as it defeating the defending champs 92-88.

The Spurs did not shoot particularly well, knocking down just 41.7 percent of their shot attempts; however, they attempted six more field goals than Miami and they missed just three of their 18 free throws. Perhaps, most critically, though, San Antonio turned the ball over just four times.

Tim Duncan and Tony Parker led the way for the Spurs with the former scoring 20 points and grabbing 14 boards and the latter posting 21 points and six assists. Kawhi Leonard also notched a double-double (10 points, 10 rebounds) while Manu Ginobili and Danny Green reached double figures in points as well.

LeBron James tallied an 18 point, 18 rebound, 10 assist triple-double for the stunned Heat; Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Ray Allen were the only other Miami players to score in double figures, scoring 17, 13, and 13 points respectively.

While the Spurs Game 1 effort was inspiring and impressive, it is difficult to believe they will pull off the same thing on Sunday. The Heat are the kings of the bounce back, making their Game 1 loss a potential Game 2 financial boon for their backers. Miami is 4-0 off a loss in the playoffs, winning its next game by an average of 22.3 points per game. James and company are also an astounding 11-0 both straight up and against the spread in their last 11 games off a loss.

Spurs Heat Odds Game 2 NBA Finals 2013: Provided by Sportsbook.ag

San Antonio Spurs +6 (-110), Over 188 (-110), +240 (Moneyline)

Miami Heat -6 (-110), Under 188 (-110), -280 (Moneyline)

NBA Finals San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat Series Price
San Antonio Spurs (Series Price)        +200
Miami Heat (Series Price)                   -240

Exact Series Result
Miami Heat 4-0                       7/1       (+700)
Miami Heat 4-1                       19/4     (+475)
Miami Heat 4-2                       11/4     (+275)
Miami Heat 4-3                       10/3     (+333)
San Antonio Spurs 4-0            18/1     (+1800)
San Antonio Spurs 4-1            17/2     (+850)
San Antonio Spurs 4-2            7/1       (+700)
San Antonio Spurs 4-3            7/1       (+700)

Total Games in Series
Over 5.5                      10/19   (-190)
Under 5.5                    31/20   (+155)

NBA Finals MVP
LeBron James             4/9       (-225)
Dwyane Wade                        8/1       (+800)
Chris Bosh                              20/1     (+2000)
Chris Andersen                       99/1     (+9900)
Any other Heat Player            35/1     (+3500)
Tony Parker                             9/2       (+450)
Tim Duncan                            7/1       (+700)
Manu Ginobili             20/1     (+2000)
Kawhi Leonard                       30/1     (+3000)
Any Other Spurs Player          30/1     (+3000)

Will there be a Flagrant Foul in the 2013 NBA Championship?
Yes      4/7       (-175)
No       29/20   (+145)

Will Any Game Go To Overtime in the 2013 NBA Championship?
Yes      5/2       (+250)
No       4/13     (-325)

Where will the series be decided?
AT&T Center, San Antonio                31/20   (+155)
American Airlines Arena, Miami        10/19   (-190)

How Many Points will the series winner average in the finals?
Over / Under   97.5

Will there be a Game winning Buzzer Beater in the 2013 NBA Championship?
Yes      7/1       (+700)
No       1/15     (-1500)

Player Props
Average Points Per Game – LeBron James
Over/Under     27.5

Average Rebounds Per Game – LeBron James
Over/Under     8

Average Assists Per Game – LeBron James
Over/Under     7

Will Lebron James Record a Triple Double in the 2013 NBA Championship?
Yes      2/1       (+200)
No       5/13     (-260)

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Average Points Per Game – Dwyane Wade
Over/ Under    17

Average Assists Per Game – Dwyane Wade
Over/ Under    5

Average Points Per Game – Chris Bosh
Over/ Under    14.5

Average Rebounds Per Game – Chris Bosh
Over/ Under    6.5

Average Points Per Game – Tony Parker
Over/Under     21.5

Average Assists Per Game – Tony Parker
Over/Under     7

Average Points Per Game – Tim Duncan
Over/Under     17

Average Rebounds Per Game – Tim Duncan
Over/Under     10

Who will average more Points Per Game in the 2013 NBA Championship
Kawhi Leonard           19/10   (+190)
Manu Ginobili 21/10   (+210)
Danny Green               5/2       (+250)
Tiago Splitter              3/1       (+300)

Highest 1 Game Point Total in the 2013 NBA Championship
Over/Under     36.5

Will any Player be suspended during the 2013 NBA Championship?
Yes      6/1       (+600)
No       1/10     (-1000)

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