The 2013 AFC and NFC Championship games are over a week old, but the opinion of the odds makers and betting public has not changed all that much over the last eight days. The latest Super Bowl 2013 Odds at offshore bookmaker Bovada.lv have the 49ers listed as a -4 against the spread favorite while the Ravens are drawing +145 as a moneyline play ($100 wins $145 should Baltimore win outright). The total in Sunday’s big game is presently set at 48 points.
Sunday’s winner will almost certainly finish ahead of the loser in this one all-important, much discussed statistic: turnovers. Only one of the last 10 Super Bowl winners finished with a negative turnover margin and that was the Pittsburgh Steelers in their 21-10 Super Bowl XL win over Seattle (-1). The other nine victors were a combined +15 in turnovers, despite two teams playing even to their opposition (Patriots – Super Bowl XXXVIII, Giants – Super Bowl XLII).
Of course, most people know whichever team wins the turnover battle usually wins the game, but what everyone would love to know is if there is a way to figure out just which team that will be on Sunday. In short, the answer is no; however, there is at least one tell-tales sign one can use to make a solid supposition.
Baltimore’s post-season performance under John Harbaugh is a great place to start. Since Harbaugh took over as the Ravens head coach, the team is 8-4 in the playoffs, but it is 8-1 in games where it won the turnover battle (exception: last year’s AFC Championship Game at New England, finished +2). Take out the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Ravens are 8-2 in the playoffs since 2008 and they are +20 in turnover margin.
Obviously, Harbaugh knows how to coach ball security and Baltimore has enough playmakers to generate takeaways when it matters most. The team’s recent history suggests that trend will continue this weekend and that spells danger to the Niners and also those who have laid the four points on San Francisco.
Super Bowl XLVII is scheduled to kickoff at 6:30pm ET on Sunday, February 3rd at the Superdome in New Orleans; the game will be broadcast live on CBS.
Super Bowl 2013 Odds: Provided by Bovada.lv
Baltimore Ravens +4 (-115), Over 48 (-110), +145 (Moneyline)
San Francisco 49ers -4 (-105), Under 48 (-110), -165 (Moneyline)