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NFL Week 5 Best Bets

by Thomas Jensen on Friday, October 4th, 2013

NFL Blue LogoSports-Odds.com has polled a few of our top football handicapping expert friends to come up with a list of the NFL Week 5 Best Bets. Many teams don’t like getting their bye week so early in the year but it couldn’t have come at a better time for Green Bay.

The Packers limped out of Cincinnati after a loss in Week 3 banged up on both sides of the ball and frustrated with all the mistakes they made that cost them the game. They come into this contest with a 1-3 SU record and need a win over Detroit to get back in the division race. RB Eddie Lacy should be good to go and that should solidify some of the Packers running game issues and that extra week off surely helped the defense licks their wounds.

This is Mike McCarthy’s eight year at the helm of Green Bay and when the Packers are playing with rest under his regime they are 10-2 ATS. The Pack are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight after allowing 31 points or more  and 9-1 ATS against a division rival when coming off a SU and ATS loss. Detroit’s looked good so far but they are still the “little brother” to Green Bay and the Packers beat up on them here at home.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet #1: Green Bay -7

The Giants may be winless (0-4) on the year but the reality is they are only two games out of 1st place in the division and are still very much in the running. Now another loss to a division rival this week (Philadelphia) wouldn’t put them out of it per se, – Dallas plays Denver and Washington is on a bye – but this is the game where the Giants have to put it all together and I believe they will.

Since 1989, 0-4 SU teams in Week 5 are 24-13 ATS when playing against another sub-.500 team and the Giants fit rather nicely into that system (side note; it also applies to Jacksonville this week). You see, they’ve seen other predominantly passing teams like San Diego and Denver put up huge numbers on this Eagles defense and are more than capable of doing the same. Slowing down Michael Vick and company is nothing new for this Giants team no matter how fast the Eagles run plays and they’ll make sure they come to play this week. Desperation has to kick-in for big time competitors like Eli Manning and Justin Tuck and these two vets on the Giants will make sure that they bring home a win.

NFL Week 5 Best Pick #2: New York Giants -2

If there ever was a game between two “game managers” at the QB position this has to be it. Kansas City is 4-0 SU behind Alex Smith and his smart decision making behind center. Smith and the Chiefs aren’t turning the ball over as their defense creates turnovers and gives the ball back to them on a short field. Given all the success they’ve had so far, there is no reason for KC to change anything for this game and they’ll continue to run the ball and bleed the clock.

Tennessee is forced to play backup QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in this one after Jake Locker got hurt and you can be that the Titans coaching staff will want to take the ball out of his hands and prevent him from turning it over. Interceptions plagued Fitzpatrick’s time in Buffalo and with a stable of solid running backs behind him the Titans are happy with Fitzpatrick handing the ball off all afternoon.

Points will be at a premium in this one and there will be a few drives that end with field goals rather than TD’s. All of that adds up to a low-scoring game and with KC being 3-12-1 O/U after scoring 30 or more, they will struggle to come close to that number this time around.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet #3: KC/Tennessee Under 39.5

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