We scored our second consecutive Upset Watch win last weekend, cashing on the New England Patriots at +3.5 to bring our season record to 4-4. This week we head to the desert in search of a third straight underdog cover, putting our faith in the up-and-down Rams, who are set to face the NFC West leading Arizona Cardinals. The latest NFL Predictions Week 10 from offshore bookmaker Sportsbook.ag have St. Louis lined as a +7.5 NFL odds underdog in the divisional contest; the game total is set at 43.5 points.
St. Louis Rams vs Arizona Cardinals (-7.5, Over/Under 43.5): This match-up certainly has a David versus Goliath feel to it with Arizona owning a league best 7-1 record and St. Louis sporting a 3-5 mark, but records are not everything, especially when it comes to division games.
The Rams proved as much two of the last three weeks, knocking off the Seahawks 28-26 at the Edward Jones Dome on October 19 and taking out the 49ers 13-10 last weekend in San Francisco. Will they pull off the divisional trifecta this weekend? It remains to be seen, but it many ways St. Louis and Arizona are not all that far apart.
Neither has a particularly scintillating offense as they both rank in the bottom third of the league in yards per game and rush yards per game but defensively the Rams actually give up fewer yards per game thanks to their seventh ranked pass defense (236.1 pass yards per game allowed). The real difference lies in the turnover department and the disparity there explains in large part the disparity in St. Louis and Arizona’s respective records.
Arizona is presently second in the NFL with a +10 turnover margin while St. Louis is 23rd in the league at -3.
So the Rams formula for success this weekend is a simple one: Take care of the football. If St. Louis does that, they will have every opportunity to score another stunning upset on Sunday.
Series Notes: The Rams have won three of the last four games in this series and they are 2-2 in their last four games at the University of Phoenix Stadium.
NFL Betting Trend: Teams playing as a divisional road dog coming off a divisional road win are 11-0 against the spread since December 17, 2006.
NFL Predictions Week 10: Odds Provided by Sportsbook.ag
St. Louis Rams +7.5 (-115), Over 43.5 (-110), +270 (Moneyline)
Arizona Cardinals -7.5 (-105), Under 43.5 (-110), -340 (Moneyline)