NFL Picks Week 12

texans jj wattWe have examined how home underdogs have performed both from a straight up and against the spread perspective this season, but we have neglected to give home favorites their proper day in the sun. With 12 home teams giving points to the opposition this weekend, it seems like a good time to examine how they have fared in those two areas over the last several weeks. First, though, let’s look at a few squads that are facing critical situations as home favorites. Chief among them is the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks, who are hosting NFC West leading Arizona. Also in that group are the Houston Texans, Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers. Sportsbook.ag’s latest NFL Picks Week 12 release has Seattle listed as a -6 NFL Odds favorite while the Texans, Falcons, Saints and Niners are drawing spreads of -1.5, -3.5, -3 and -9 points, respectively.

Looking back all the way to Week 5 and through Week 11 we find that home favorite have produced a 39-17 straight up mark while posting a solid 36-30 record against the number. To narrow things a bit further, we took a look at how clubs favored between -3 and Pick’em fared during that stretch and we discovered they performed slightly worse in terms of actually wins and losses, going 14-8 straight up (63.6 percent); however, they turned in a slightly better 13-9 (59 percent) record opposite the number.

The aforementioned Texans and Saints are the only two teams that fit that bill this weekend. Houston will play host to the Cincinnati Bengals and New Orleans will face Baltimore on Monday night.

Here are a few things to consider regarding the Texans and Saints this weekend:

The Texans are 1-5 against the spread in their last six games playing at home off a road win and they are 3-5 opposite the number in their last eight games as a home favorite.

The Saints are 6-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last seven games playing as a home favorite off back to back losses.

NFL Picks Week 12: Odds Provided by Sportsbook.ag

Thursday, November 20 –

Kansas City Chiefs -7.5, Over 42.5
Oakland Raiders +7.5, Under 42.5

Sunday, November 23 –

Cleveland Browns +3.5, Over 47
Atlanta Falcons -3.5, Under 47

Tennessee Titans +11, Over 49
Philadelphia Eagles -11, Under 49

Detroit Lions +7, Over 48.5
New England Patriots -7, Under 48.5

Green Bay Packers -10, Over 49.5
Minnesota Vikings +10, Under 49.5

Jacksonville Jaguars +14, Over 50.5
Indianapolis Colts -14, Under 50.5

Cincinnati Bengals +1.5, Over 44
Houston Texans -1.5, Under 44

New York Jets +4.5, Over 39
Buffalo Bills -4.5, Under 39

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6, Over 46.5
Chicago Bears -6, Under 46.5

Arizona Cardinals +6, Over 42.5
Seattle Seahawks -6, Under 42.5

St. Louis Rams +4.5, Over 43.5
San Diego Chargers -4.5, Under 43.5

Miami Dolphins +7.5, Over 49.5
Denver Broncos -7.5, Under 49.5

Washington Redskins +9, Over 44.5
San Francisco 49ers -9, Under 44.5

NBC Sunday Night Football –

Dallas Cowboys -3.5, Over 48
New York Giants +3.5, Under 48

Monday, November 24 –

ESPN Monday Night Football –

Baltimore Ravens +3, Over 50.5
New Orleans Saints -3, Under 50.5

BYES: Pittsburgh Steelers, Carolina Panthers