Okay, our NFL Odds Upset Watch selections have not exactly been gold this season, sitting at 4-5 thanks to the Rams 14-31 at Arizona a couple of weeks ago; however, we are 2-1 with our last three picks and we like our chances to make it a 3-1 run this weekend. We are going to hitch our Week 12 wagon to the Detroit Lions, who are in Foxboro, Massachusetts for an inter-conference clash with the red hot New England Patriots. According to the latest NFL Predictions Week 12 from Bovada.lv, Jim Caldwell’s crew is getting 7.5 points from Tom Brady and company.
Detroit Lions vs New England Patriots (-7.5, Over/Under 48): New England is the best team in the NFL right now even if Arizona’s record says otherwise. What the Patriots have done over the last six games has cemented their status as the league’s top dog as they not only won each of those contests, but they did so by an average of 19.2 points.
New England’s current run was not the result of chopped liver schedule either. No, the Patriots offed playoff contenders in the Bengals, Bills, Broncos and Colts and two of those victories came on the road.
But all good things eventually come to an end (just ask the Kansas City Chiefs), and New England is due for a letdown. And Detroit looks like just the kind of team that could spoil a party. The 7-3 Lions have some holes as they’ve proven in losses to the Panthers, Bills and Cardinals, but they do a number of things well too.
In spite of its big name offensive personnel, Detroit has become a defensive powerhouse under Caldwell’s direction and it has enough weapons on that side of the ball to knock the Patriots surging offense off balance.
Only three teams have scored more than 20 points on the Lions all season and no team has posted more than 24 points against them. Detroit usually drags the other team to its level and I have no issue backing a club like that, especially when it is getting 7.5 points.
NFL Betting Trend: Teams playing as -7 or more home favorites who scored 40 or more points in each of their last two games are 3-7 against the spread since November 2, 2009.
NFL Predictions Week 12: Odds Provided by Bovada.lv
Detroit Lions +7.5 (-115), Over 48 (-115)
New England Patriots -7.5 (-105), Under 48 (-105)