The home dog, everyone’s favorite money maker, performed well again last week, going 3-2 straight up and 3-1-1 against the spread. Scoring outright wins for under-appreciated hosts everywhere were the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Miami Dolphins as they were collectively +7 in turnover margin. Home teams catching points are now 28-34 straight up and 35-24-3 against the spread for the season. According to the latest NFL Odds Week 12 from Carbon Sports, there are four teams donning the home underdog cloak this weekend. Those clubs are Miami, Oakland, New England, and Washington. The Dolphins are getting 4.5 points from the visiting Panthers, the Raiders are a one point dog to the Titans, the Patriots are a 2.5 point underdog to the Broncos, and the Redskins are collecting 6.5 points from the 49ers.
1. Miami Dolphins (+4.5): The Dolphins appear to be on life support, but they are staying alive nonetheless as last week’s 20-16 win over the Chargers improved their record to 5-5 overall. The victory also served as Miami’s second home underdog cover in as many opportunities this season. The Fins get another crack at that role this weekend with the surging Panthers in South Florida prowling around for a seventh straight win. This has all the makings of a letdown spot for Carolina, but teams playing as a favorite off a home Monday night win are 4-0 both straight up and against the spread this season.
2. Oakland Raiders (+1): The Raiders are no stranger to getting points at home as Sunday’s meeting with the Titans will mark the fourth time this season they have played as a home dog. Oakland is 2-1 thus far in said situation, earning wins over the Steelers and Chargers. Here the Raiders catch a free falling Titans squad, which has lost five of its last six games, but one that is also 2-2 on the road this season with wins over the Rams and Steelers. Tennessee also comes in well rested, having last taken the field on Thursday, November 14th. Teams coming off a Thursday game and playing as a favorite are 11-2 straight up and 10-3 against the spread this season. If those teams are playing as a favorite off of a Thursday night division game they are 7-0 straight up and 6-1 against the spread.
3. New England Patriots (+2.5): Underdog, yet alone home underdog, is not a role Tom Brady and company are used to. In fact, New England, which is 12-2 in its last 14 regular season home games, has not been labeled as such since the 2006 season. As one might expect, the Patriots have thrived in the disrespected role, posting a 7-3 straight up and 8-2 against the spread record in their last 10 games getting points at home. Certainly Denver presents a number of challenges, but this is a New England or pass situation in our estimation.
4. Washington Redskins (+6.5): The Redskins look like a rudderless ship, having lost three of their last four games; however, they have found success at home of late. Washington is 2-0 in its last two games at FedEX Field with wins over the Bears and Chargers. San Francisco is a more formidable adversary than either of those two teams, but the Niners, who have traveled a great deal in recent weeks, are coming off back to back losses. The Redskins are also 6-3 straight up and 6-2-1 against the spread since 2010 when coming off a road division game.
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NFL Odds Week 12: Provided by CarbonSports.ag
Sunday, November 24th –
San Diego Chargers +5, Over 42
Kansas City Chiefs -5, Under 42
Pittsburgh Steelers +1, Over 40
Cleveland Browns -1, Under 40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5, Over 49.5
Detroit Lions -8.5, Under 49.5
Minnesota Vikings +5, Over 43.5
Green Bay Packers -5, Under 43.5
Chicago Bears +1, Over 46
St. Louis Rams -1, Under 46
Carolina Panthers -4.5, Over 41.5
Miami Dolphins +4.5, Under 41.5
New York Jets +3.5, Over 39
Baltimore Ravens -3.5, Under 39
Jacksonville Jaguars +10, Over 43.5
Houston Texans -10, Under 43.5
Tennessee Titans -1, Over 41.5
Oakland Raiders +1, Under 41.5
Indianapolis Colts +2.5, Over 45.5
Arizona Cardinals -2.5, Under 45.5
Dallas Cowboys +2.5, Over 45.5
New York Giants -2.5, Under 45.5
NBC Sunday Night Football
Denver Broncos -2.5, Over 54.5
New England Patriots +2.5, Under 54.5
ESPN Monday Night Football November 25th –
San Francisco 49ers -6.5, Over 47
Washington Redskins +6.5, Under 47